Mat 540 midterm week 5 latest february version – 100% score

1.     Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters

2.       A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously

3.       A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval

4.       A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches

5.       A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated

6.       Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted

7.       The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future

8.       Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns

9.       Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot

10.  __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.

11.   The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information

12.   Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers

13.   In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution

14.  A seed value is a(n)

15.   Consider the following frequency of demand

16.   Consider the following graph of sales    Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data

17.   Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable

18.   The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is  The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80   What is the expected yield of the crop

19.  __________ is a measure of the strength of the relationship between independent and dependent variables.

20.   __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand

21.   __________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand

22.   Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors

23.   Consider the following demand and forecast   If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4

24.  __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

25.   A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal

26.   The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution

27.   An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities.  Each person is limited to one entry

28.   A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal

29.   The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code.  The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). 

30.   Consider the following decision tree.

What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer

31.  Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40,  86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand

32.  Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast

33.  Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008       Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits after the decimal

34.  This is the data from the last 4 weeks    Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10

35.  Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data

36.  The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product    Use exponential smoothing with α = .2  and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August

37.  Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
           

 
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal

38.  Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.

39.  The following sales data are available for 2003-2008     Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5

40.  The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 : Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three significant digits after the decimal

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